Irish Election Result - A Triumph for Fine Gael & Enda Kerry

The final transfers in the Irish election have been counted and the picture is now clear.

Enda Kenny - The new Taoiseach in-waiting

As had been expected from reading opinion polls leading up to the election and as I commented upon here and here in my blog, Fine Gael have soared to a historic victory.

The economic meltdown has led to the meltdown in Ireland's main party of power over the past 80 years, Fianna Fáil. Whilst they crumbled to their worst result since 1932, all of their main opponents made hay in their place.

Earlier thie week I predicted the following result here...

Fine Gael - 70-75 seats - short of the 84 needed for an outright majority.
Labour - 35-40 seats
Fianna Fáil - 25-30 seats
Sinn Féin - 10-12 seats

The final result is as follows...

Fine Gael - 76 seats (36.1% of the vote)
Labour - 37 seats (19.4% of the vote)
Fianna Fáil - 20 (17.4% of the vote)
Sinn Féin - 14 seats (9.9% of the vote)

Fine Gael then scored their best ever election result - surpassing the 70 seats they won in November 1982.
Labour meanwhile surpassed their best election result  - surpassing the 33 seats they won in 1992.
Sinn Féin meanwhile surpassed their best election result  - surpassing the 5 seats they won in 2002.

Fianna Fáil meanwhile saw their vote collapse by over 24% and lost 57 seats, slumping from the 77 seats won in the previous election in 2007 to the now relatively derisory total of just 20.

Fianna Fáil's government partners, the Green Party, were not spared the pain - their grouping of 6 were annihilated and wiped out in its entirety.

An interesting footnote is the growth of the 'left' vote. The newly formed United Left group of left-wing parties have made inroads - electing 2 Socialist Party members and 2 also from the People Before Profit Alliance. In addition, a hefty 15 Independents were also elected - all demonstrating that a significant number of Irish voters, some 15%, were turned off from voting for any of the major parties.

It is for these reasons that the 2011 Irish General Election will go down in the history books as a watershed moment when everything changed. The Fianna Fáil hegemony as the largest political party for the previous 79 years has come to a crushing, devastating, humiliating defeat.

What Next?
We can expect to see early discussions between Fine Fael and Labour. They have worked together in government on many occasions in the past between 1948-1951, 1954-1957, 1973-1977, 1981-1982, 1982-1987 and 1994-1997 so such an arrangement is almost to be expected.

But this time, instead of forming a majority to oust the largest party Fianna Fáil as was the case on all of the above occasions, this time they do so as the largest two parties in the Dáil. If they do form a coalition, they will form a government consisting of 113 Deputies out of a total of 166 - making it by my estimate, the biggest parliamentary majority in the history of the Irish Republic.

If this does indeed transpire, it will leave Fianna Fáil as the main opposition which will give them a role to play as they plan to re-build after the electoral humiliation. At the same time, Sinn Féin are already claiming that they will be the main left-ist opposition party to the government in Dublin and with an unprecedented ?? Deputies to their name, they will be an even greater force to be reckoned with south of the Irish border than ever before.

A New Era in Irish Politics
It really is all change. Enda Kerry will now be the new Taoiseach and first from Fine Gael since John Bruton in between 1994-1997.

Labour will be emboldened by their record performance and Sinn Féin will be delighted with a significant advance in their numbers.

With just 20 Deputies in the new 31st Dáil, Fianna Fáil face an uncertain future. Can they claw themselves back from this historic law and ensure that the seismic shift in the re-alignment of Irish politics is merely a temporary blip? Time will tell but such is catastrophic nature of this result for Fianna Fáil, I very much doubt that Irish politics will ever revert to the ways of old.

But it really all depends on the ability of the new administration to deal with the economic mess that it has been left by the out-going Brian Cowen led government. If they can bring a sense of stability to their beleaguered nation, then they have every chance of guaranteeing the complete re-alignment of Irish politics at the next election which will take place by 2016 at the latest.

Fianna Fail in Meltdown - Early Irish Election Results

The STV election results in Ireland really are fascinating. It will only be tomorrow afternoon that we should have the final results from yesterday's count but the early results back-up what the opinion polls were suggestion in the lead-up to the poll.

The RTE website here are showing detailed coverage of the results as they trickle in. At 6.55pm many constituencies had announced the first count results whilst others are still counting.

Of the results currently in, the latest figures are as follows...

Fine Gael - 35.3%
Labour - 22%
Fianna Fáil - 17.2%
Sinn Féin - 8.4%
Green Party - 2.2%

On the early results, Fianna Fáil are down by 20%-25% on their 2007 result and are indeed heading, as I mentioned in my blog post here, for their worst election result since 1932.

Fine Gael are indeed looking set to become the biggest party in the Irish Parliament with the Labour Party also heading towards their best ever result. Sinn Féin are also looking to double their representation at Fianna Fáil's expense.

But the final results will be determined by the transfers over the course of the next 24 hours and in what is an unprecedented election, it's impossible to second-guess how the first preferences will split further down the ballot.

But we'll know the final scores soon enough...

My Irish Election Predictions (aka History in the Making)

We are now days away from the general election in the Republic of Ireland.



New Fianna Fáil Leader
Michael Martin

As I blogged here last month, the ruling Fianna Fáil government are set to make big losses as it reaps the backlash of an angry Irish populace after the European Union and IMF economic bailout and the austerity measures that have been imposed on the nation by the government. It is likely to be Fianna Fáil's worst election result in their long and distinguished history having been the largest party in every Irish parliamentary election since 1932.



Fianna Fáil Collapse Imminent

When I wrote about the state of play 4 weeks ago, Fianna Fail's only hope of salvation was of galvanising themselves behind a new leader. Well, they have that new leader in Foreign Secretary Michael Martin but the latest opinion polls are as dire for them now as they were for them then.

As the excellent Britain Votes blog has said:

"As it turned out this was a good move as Martin is a very capable communicator and he has done well in the role. Nonetheless the Fianna Fail brand is so irrevocably damaged that even senior members are talking of ‘managed decline’ and Martin has stated he has a ‘ten year plan’ to return to power".

For a party that has won on avaerage, 43% of the vote at general elections since independence, they are now hovering around the 16% mark in opinion polls with only 2 days to go.


Enda Kenny - the next Irish Taoiseach?

Time for Fine Gael to Shine?

For the first time in Irish history, the perpetual second party, Fine Gael are on the verge of becoming the largest party in the Dáil Éireann with leader Enda Kerry on the verge of becoming the next Taoiseach (Prime Minister). They are projected to score anywhere between 35%-40% but are probably just going to miss out on an absolute majority in the 166 seat Dublin-based Parliament . They are more to the centre-right than Fianna Fail and also the Irish Labour Party who, having led some opinion polls last summer with their popular leader Eamon Gilmore have slipped back to the 20% mark in recent polls.

It's presumed that Fine Gael and Labour will concoct a coaltion government as they have done before but this can not be guaranteed.

Will Sinn Féin make greater inroads with Gerry Adams now at their helm? They'll probably not score as highly as Fianna Fail and will do well to poll anywhere near 15% but it will be progress all the same.

Damage Limitation

Irish Labour Party  Leader
Eamon Gilmore 

This election will be won by Fine Gael for the first time in their history. In itself, this marks the 2011 Irish general election as a significant turning point in the history of Irish politics.

But there are so many imponderables with just days to go. How well will Fine Gael do? They would want to score at least 40% of the popular vote I'm sure to give themselves real momentum and credibility by delivering a decisive victory. Can Labour hold on to second overall and create history for their party too? Can Fianna Fáil manage to do enough to retrieve second place from Labour? If they can, it would be seen as damage limitation par excellence.

Sinn Féin meanwhile are going to make gains but probably not the great strides forward that they would like.

The problem with evaluating where Irish politics will stand this coming Saturday is that we don't know how the STV voting transfers will split between the parties. It is this transfer of votes that will decide just how many seats in the Dáil Éireann that each party will have.

Cole's Irish Prediction
But for what it's worth, I will predict the following...

Fine Gael - 70-75 seats - short of the 84 needed for an outright majority.
Labour - 35-40 seats
Fianna Fáil - 25-30 seats
Sinn Féin - 10-12 seats

The Green Party are likely to be left with a rump of 1-2 seats from their current 6 and there'll no doubt be a smattering of Independents.

So hold on tight folks, it's going to be a fascinating but without a doubt, historic election in Ireland this coming Friday.

Irish politics will never be the same again...

A Failed Fianna Fáil & an Irish Political Earthquake

The Republic of Ireland's Green Party today withdrew from Brian Cowen's Fianna Fáil led Coaltion Government,

It means that an election is imminent. We're probably looking at mid-February instead of the March 11th date announced by Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Cowen yesterday. He looked secure in his position when he won a party leadership secret ballot last week but a botched Cabinet reshuffle was rejected by their then Green partners and yesterday he announced that he would step down as Fianna Fáil's leader but would remain as Taoiseach until the election. Such an untenable position is extraordinary and all of this has precipitated today's pivotal decision.

Unless he dissolves Parliament tomorrow, he faces a vote of no confidence in his leadership on Tuesday. Without the Greens, his 2 seat majority has evaporated and he is likely to lose that vote in the Republic's Parliament, the Dáil Éireann (if it happens).

Fianna Fáil in Meltdown
The latest opinion polls show that the Republic of Ireland's long-serving governing party are on the verge of a historic meltdown. I don't use these words lightly.

As the Republic's finances has spiralled, and as the international financial bailout has led to swingeing public sector cuts, so have the governing party's opinion poll ratings. They were re-elected in May 2007 with 41.5% of the vote but in the latest Paddy Power Bookmakers Red C opinion poll on January 7th, they had slumped to just 14%. Fine Gael polled 35%, the Labour Party polled 21% and Sinn Féin polled 14%.

Fianna Fáil are tied, a month from a general election, in 3rd place, with Sinn Féin.

The Fall of Fianna Fáil?

This latest opinion poll points towards an electoral collapse for the party of Éamon de Valera, Jack Lynch and Bertie Ahern.

This is a party that first contested an election in June 1927 and instantly won 44 seats. It has never registered less than that figure in the ensuing 84 years. Indeed, between 1932 (when it first formed the government) and the present day, Fianna Fáil have won between 65 and 86 seats including a stunning 20 seat majority in a STV Proportional Representation election win in 1977 with over 50% of the vote (matching its achievement in 1938). Its lowest ever % total of the vote was the 26.2% it earned in that first election in June 1927. It has only polled less than 39% on election day on 4 times in its history.

The party has been in power for 53 years of its 84 year history and is the second most successful political party in the democratic world after the Swedish Social Democratic Party.

So an opinion poll that puts it in the low to mid teens weeks away from election day demonstrates how catasclysmic this election result could well prove to be.

The Alternatives? Fine Gael and the Labour Party

So if Ireland's top party are on the verge of an apocylyptic result, who is set to take advantage?

Well, the results show that it is the perennial 2nd party in Irish politics, Fine Gael who are set to capitalise. Unlike it's historic protaganist, it has never formed a single party government - only coalition governments, usually with the Labour Party. The reason for this? Because it has never polled, since it first stood in an election in 1937, more than Fianna Fáil. That's right readers - NEVER.

Its best result was in November 1982 when it won 70 seats, just 5 less than Fianna Fáil with its highest ever share of the vote at 39.2% - yes, the same 39% which Fianna Fáil have on only 4 occasions ever slipped under.

Only 9 years ago, back in 2002 when Bertie Aherne swept his way to re-election, Fine Gael 'collapsed' to just 22.5% of the vote and 31 seats - its worse performance since 1944. But under new leader Enda Kenny they won 51 seats with an extra 4.8% of the vote in 2007.

Now, with opinion poll ratings in the mid-30s, the Dáil Éireann's 'Father', its longest serving member Enda Kenny is now set to become the successor to Cowen as Taoiseach as the largest party in its history.

So who would Fine Gael partner-up with to form a stable government? It'll likely be their partners of old, the Labour Party. Back at the end of last year for the first time in their history, they led an opinion poll.

From its first election in 1922, it has fluctuated from a low of 7 seats in 1932 to a high of 33 in 1992. Led by Eamon Gilmore, they won 20 seats in the last election in 2007 with 10.1% of the vote. If they match on election day the state of the polls at present they are set for their best ever election result.

The Rise of Sinn Féin?

But keep a keen eye out on the IRA's political mouthpiece of old.

Sinn Féin are now the prominent Republican and nationalist party in Northern Irish politics but since the 1930s' due to their abstentionist policy, have been a bit part player in the Dáil Éireann. They currently only have 5 members but one of those was won in a sensational by-election result last year. Their 2007 result of 6.9% is likely to be smashed if their mid-teens opinion poll ratings transfer into polling booths votes on election day. With Arthur Morgan's retirement from Lough this year, Gerry Adams is also set to take his place to historically take a seat in Dublin.

A Historic Shift in Irish Politics

So, can Fianna Fáil fight back before election day? Maybe, but only if Cowen falls on his sword now and isn't seen to be the party's figurehead going into the election. The best I sense that they can hope for is to score 20% of the vote. They need to finish above Sinn Féin though this can't be guaranteed. It's likely to be a Fine Gael and Labour Party election win though the margins of which will determine the composition of the next government.

But whatever happens, it can be fair to say that this is going to be seismic. This result in some 4 weeks time is going to be a political earthquake. Do not underestimate what is about to happen.

Fine Gael have never been the top party in Irish politcs.

Labour have never looked so strong.

Sinn Féin  have never looked so ominous.

Fianna Fáil have never been so fragile.

The economic mire which the Republic has found itself in is going to result in unprecedented scenes next month. To what extent that will be will only be known on election night.