The Humbling of President Obama (and those Congress votes in Full)

So, there we have it.

With only 12 hours to spare, the US Congress pulled back from leading the world's largest economy towards a humiliating and devastating default on its debts by increasing its debt ceiling by $2.4tn from $14.3tn.

Source: BBC News Website

Surely, it never was going to happen was it? Probably not. But leaving it to the 11th hour in such a way demonstrated just how divided the Congress is on this issue and more generally. What is quite extraordinary however is that even at this latest of moments there were so many members of Congress from both sides of the political divide who were effectively willing to vote for default by voting against the package eventually put forward by the Democratic and Republican leaders on Sunday.

161 members of the lower House of Representatives voted against the bill against a majority of 269 in favour. The Democrats were torn down the middle with a dead-even 95 in favour and 95 against whilst 174 Republicans supported its passage against 66 who likewise voted for economic armageddon (the indiviudal voting records can be seen here). Be it the ultra-liberal Democratic Party left or the ultra-conservative Republican Tea Party right, that was an incredibly irresponsible number of senior US politicians who were willing to put their differing political ideologies above pragmatic political and economic reality. That surely must give the American people some serious food for thought. Vince Cable recently called the Republican Tea Party right-wingers 'nutters'. I wouldn't disagree with him but in all fairness, what about those on the left of the Democratic Party who for different reasons, still voted the same way as these so called 'nutters'? Their motivations may have been poles apart, but their actions would've led to the same cliff-edge disaster for their national economy.

Indeed, even in the more bi-partisan Senate, there were still 26 Senators who likewise were willing to vote against. Maybe it was in the knowledge that the majority was in faour and that theirs were really merely protest votes but even if that's the case, it's an incredibly recklesss gamble to play. The indiviudal voting records can be seen here (respect to the Senate website who have released the information within an hour of the vote) and shows that of the 26 Nays, 19 were Republicans, 6 were Democrats and 1 was an Independent.

President Obama - Stuck in the Middle with You
So it comes to pass that we find President Obama stuck in a politically neutered position. In such a scenario where the Congress is split between a Democratic-ran Senate and a Republican-ran House, compromise is the only way forward. It has always been thus.

Despite having the executive powers of the Oval Office at his disposal, Obama's powers are still nevertheless limited. On domestic and economic issues such as this, he has not got the ability to wave a magic wand and to do whatver he wishes. He must have the support of the Congress to further his domestic agenda and ever since he lost the control of the House last November in the mid-terms, it was clear that that would not now be the case for the remainder of his term in office.

Will it reflect badly on his own opinion ratings? Only time will tell. He is still in a strong position to seek re-election to a second term in November 2012 but whilst he has avoided a catastrophe on his watch, the fact that it was the Republicans that got its vote out to win the critical House vote shows that there was more in it for them than there was for the despairing Democrats.

A Bright Light Amongst the Gloom
One moment of relief at least came in the House yesterday when Congresswoman Gabrielle Gifford was given an ovation on her first appearance back in Congress after she was shot in the head in Tuscan back in January. The emotional scenes gave a brief reminder that Congress can at times come together and claw above the political din which casts in the eyes of the American public, a pox on both of their houses.

As a footnote, Congresswoman Gifford voted in favour of the Resolution. Out of this entirely regrettable mess, she is probably the only American politican who comes out of it with any shred of credibility and dignity.

US Mid-Terms - Obama's Nadir or his Saviour?

It was not long ago that I asked the question on this blog, what went wrong for Obama? That was September 5th and now, almost 2 months later, the mid-terms are upon us.

Obama's hopes look as bleak now as they did then. For the reasons that I mentioned in that earlier post, it isn't really surprising.

However, I couldn't help but notice a comment that I made, that if as expected, the results go against the Democrats, then to quote Bachman-Turner Overdrive and to paraphrase D:ream, 'You ain't seen nothing yet' because 'Things can only get worse'.

Hope for Obama?

I hold by my belief that the Democrats should just narrowly hold on to the Senate but are unfortunately likely to lose the House.

But having read Rupert Cornwell's front page piece in yesterday's Independent, perhaps I should not be so pessimistic, even if this scenario is played out.

Now, Rupert Cornwell is one of the many reasons why I read The Independent. The paper has some excellent commentators and Rupert, with his wry but keen observational eye on north American politics and life in general, always delivers with his incisive comment.

He made the valid point yesterday that if Obama does lose control of Congress, it may not be the disaster that it looks at present. Of course, if the 'Tea Party' contingent pull the Republicans in the House of Representatives further to the right, then we could have a complete and utter dead-lock.

But having said that, running the House would suddenly give the Republicans responsibility. They won't suddenly be able to play the obstructionist card which they have done so effectively (and to America's great damage) ovet the past 2 years. If they did, then they should suffer at the hands of the electorate in 2 years time.

The Clinton Experience

I mentioned it in my earlier blog post and Rupert Cornwell also alluded to the Bill Clinton experience is such a circumstance.

Clinton went from seeing a Democratic control of both Houses of Congress evaporate within 2 years of his election as Newt Gingrich's Republicans swept the board in 1994. Yet it didn't play against Clinton's chances when his re-election came around in 1996.

Clinton moved to the centre and worked constructively with the new Congress and it was to his credit. Suddenly, he was not soley to blame for the country's ills. The 'Republican Congress' also had to take it's fair share of the blame for the nation's discontent.

Republican intrasigence whilst leading the House will not play in their favour. At least it shouldn't do.

The Mid-Terms - Obama's Nadir or his Saviour?

So perhaps, losing outright control of Congree might make it easier for the Democrats to share the blame in the years ahead and help Obama in his re-election in 2012.

Having said that, it goes without saying that I'd much prefer the Democrats to retain overall control of Congress. No doubt I'll report back when my predictions have been blown apart this coming week.

What went wrong for Obama?

On re-starting my blog, I looked over my earlier posts. President Obama was taking over in the Oval Office when I began this blog and my initial posts covered this momentus event.

Those blog posts were understandably full of relief that the reign of 'Dubya' had come to an end and optimism that Obama's was about to begin.

But, 18 months on, what went wrong?
Looking back now, it's incredible to see how such hope has turned to cynicism. Obama's popularity numbers are typically low (admittedly similar to those of Clinton and Regan mid-way through their first terms) and there doesn't seem to be any hope of an upsurge in his foirtunes in the near future. Indeed, with mid-term congressional elections just months away, things are going to get a lot worse.

But why?
The economy of course has been central. Despite the big bailouts, the western economy still hangs precariously and worries that we may fall into a 'double-dip' recession continues to harm consumer confidence. Obama is no miracle worker and recovery has been slow. Unemployment in the USA is still uncomfortably high, currently running at around 9.6% and until he can get these numbers down, Obama will continue to be harangued for a problem that emanated under his predecessors time in office.

The health care debate was protracted and felt more like an exercise in water torture. It is fundamentally to Obama'a credit that he finally came out of the 12 month long process with reform that has alluded past Presidents - particularly Clinton. Whatever happens, he can point decisively to this great, progressive step forward for his country as one of his legacies - 48m uninsured Americans now have affordable healthcare cover.

Yet, the anger that the whole debate engendered throughout the country demonstrates how vitriolic and downright stubborn the American right continue to be despite the defeat to Obama in November '08. There is an overwhelmingly strong independent streak within the American psyche that doesn't like to be told what to do. Big Government is Bad Government and Obama's 'Socialist' policies will of course be the ruin of the American way of life as we know it. The fact that these extreme sentiments are easily transferred into the American consciousness via the media and talk show stations across the country, means that agitation spreads quickly.

The growth of the 'Tea Party' movement at this time demonstrated to me very quickly and suddenly, that that minority who didn't support Obama, were not going to lie down and let him lead. They would do all that they could to challenge his government and in as loud a way as possible. Despite having a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, it was still a herculean effort for Obama, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi to get their reforms onto the statute books. It was so ironic that the death of arch-liberal Ted Kennedy and the shock loss of his ultra-liberal safe Massachusetts Senate Seat made the whole saga that much more complicated. Yet, it demonstrated as starkly as anything else could, that within merely 12 months of his historic election, Obama's honeymoon had well and truly come to an end. By pushing so hard and so soon on this necessary piece of legislation, he offered his deepest cynics the opportunity to come out fighting. It is a great shame however, that despite being roundly defeated in the November '08 Presidential and Congressional elections, the Republican Party refused to show decent grace and greater magnaminity with Obama as he looked to herald in reform that had clearly won the support of the electorate at election time. I felt the Republican Party's attiude at this time was nothing short of disgraceful but then, I shouldn't really have been surprised.

The 'Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill' in the Gulf of Mexico has also been an unexpected disaster that has turned against Obama. In many respects, there's little he could do apart from wait for the engineers to find a way to finally block the pipe and make the best of a bad job. But whether he deserves criticism or not, the way he has handled the issue hasn't endeared him to many struggling Americans who have suffered as a result.

The recent furore about the Muslim Mosque planning application in New York by Ground Zero has again brought his judgement into question. In this writer's opinion, Obama'a willingness to suddenly change his tone, as he did with the BP Oil Spill above, to attempt to strike closer to what may be perceived to be the 'public mood' demonstrates a great enease in his own position at present.

The great tide of support for Obama of course was based not only on his personal credentials, but the widely perceived credentials of his failed predecessor. We moderate, reasonable thinking people of the world were just relieved that Dubya's time was finally at an end and that this shining star was coming to save us.

Of course, expectations were too high - particularly in the midst of a great economic downturn and being in government now for 18 months has meant that Obama has rightly had to shoulder greater responsibility for the ills of his nation.

But can it get any better?
The worrying truth of the matter, is probably not. The damage that has rightly or wrongly been dealt to the Democratic Party is without a doubt going to show itself this coming November. At the best, Obama can hope to retain greatly reduced majorities in both the House of Representatives and in the Senate. If the Democrats can pull this off, it would be a great result.

Of the 37 Senate seats up for grabs on November 2nd, 19 are held by the Democrats and 18 by the Republicans. Considering that the Democrats currently have 57 Senators to the Republicans' 41, Obama is in a better position than may have been the case. Almost half of the Republican Senatorial base are up for grabs this autumn but the same can only be said for a third of the Democratic base. To take the majority in the Senate, the Republicans would need to keep their 18 and take at least 9 of the Democrats' 19. It's a tall order but I can see Harry Reid continuing to play the role of Majority Leader come January, but only just.

The House of Representatives however is of course a much more fickle beast. All 435 seats are up for grabs this autumn and the Democrats currently hold a 253-178 seat majority of 75. There need be a mere switch of 40 seats for Nancy Pelosi to lose her position as Speaker of the House and in these fevered, volatile times, it could well happen.

Now, it's possible of course that the Democrats may well keep their majorities in both, but with the addition of the 'Tea Party' and their broad support of the Republican Party, who knows where the wind will blow. Will their additional support sweep the Republicans to victory on Capitol Hill or will it, Sarah Palin like, turn off the mainstream moderate voters and send them back to the Democrats?

Time will tell but whatever happens, Obama's great majorities in both Houses are going to be a thing of the past. These first two years have been tough but looking forward, we may look back at them as the Golden Years of Obama's Presidency when he actually had the support on Capitol Hill to push through progressive domestic reforms. If it all goes badly in the fall, then Obama could find himself up against a Republican House and/or Senate in the same way that Clinton did in 1994 after only 2 years at the White House.

This doesn't mean that Obama will lose his re-election bid in 2012 of course - Bill Clinton didn't. But if the Democrats lose out this November as they invariably will, then to quote Bachman-Turner Overdrive and to paraphrase D:ream, 'You ain't seen nothing yet' because 'Things can only get worse'.

Good luck for the elections to my Democrat friends and Mr Obama. I dread to say it, but they're going to need it.