A Vote for a New Politics in Northern Ireland - Vote Alliance

It's been all-go for me on the Welsh Liberal Democrat front over recent days, weeks and months and there's just days to go before polling day.

But whilst I'll be doing my best to elect Elizabeth Evans to the Welsh Assembly here in Ceredigion, there'll also be elections around the country in England, Scotland and not forgetting, Northern Ireland.

There, I'll be keeping a particularly keen eye out on developments as one who has a deep interest in Irish politics. I'm particularly hoping for a good night for the non-sectarian Alliance Party. They are the Liberal Democrats' sister party in that part of the Union but more importantly than that, they are the sensible, liberal voice that Northern Ireland desperately needs to move the country forward from the divisions of old.

Here is a short, and I think, very innovative clip that the party has used in the run-up to these elections (apologies for it not being totally in sync - that's my fault, not the Alliance Party's fault!).



After winning a historic election last May in Belfast East and in doing so, electing the first ever Alliance MP to Westminster in Naomi Long, I hope to see them further consolidate and grow their presence in the Stormont Assembly this coming Thursday.

Northern Ireland needs the Alliance Party.

Good luck to them on Thursday.

Riverdance - The Greatest Show on Earth (My Love of Ireland)

I'm Welsh and mightily proud of it. But I'm also a Celt - I feel it in my bones.

I have a particular pull towards Ireland which goes back to before I can remember. Listening to my father's Daniel O'Donnell tapes in the car as a child imparted in me that balladic Irish sound and the names of the geographic landmarks of the Emerald Isle.

I find its history and politics fascinating and for followers of my blog that will have been clear by my regular posts on the recent general election there.

I've been to Belfast twice and fell in love with the city instantly. Despite the troubles, it has grown into a confident new 21st century city whilst still holding onto some of those old enmities. I've been up to (London) Derry too and it's another beautiful city. So enraptured was I of my first experience there in May 2007 that I got together a rag-bag group of 8 of us to go there to celebrate the '08/'09 New Year there too! I've only been to Dublin on one very brief though memorable occasion back in 2002 but I do desperately want to explore south and western Ireland. The Cork's, Limerick's and Galway's of the world are high up on my list of places that I want to visit.

There's something about the culture of the place and of the Irish joy de vivre that just bowls me over.

Nowhere can it be encapsulated better than in the memorising, hypnotic Riverdance. Here are Michael Flatley and Jean Butler leading the case as the interval act at the 1994 Eurovision Song Contest in Dublin in 1994.



For me, it sums up everything that is uniquely Irish. The passion, the history, the wonderful wonderful music, the melancholy, the precise, the sublime.

I love Ireland and if I ever had had the great misfortune of not being born Welsh and had had the choice of nationality left with me then I'd have chosen to have been Irish.

A New Opposition in Northern Irish Politics?

The leader of the Ulster Unionist Party, Tom Elliott has today called for a transition in Northern Irish politics over the next 5 years to bring the system of mandatory coalition government to an end and to bring in an official opposition in Stormont.



Tom Elliott - Ulster Unionist leader



I find this report on the BBC website today that details his call a fascinating one as it goes to the heart of the delicate party political climate that currently exists in Northern Ireland.

I have a particular interest in Irish politics as previous blog posts allude to here and here.

Good Friday Agreement

Since 1997, any rule of law from Stormont has only been possible if the main unionist and nationalist protaganists have worked together in government.

Since 2007, the Stormont Assembly has been functional with a DUP First Minister and a Sinn Fein Deputy First Minister. Also involved have been the UUP and the nationalist SDLP. This has been necessary to keep the fragile peace that has built over recent years in Northern Ireland, in one piece on the floor of the country's legislature. The liberal non-sectarian Alliance Party were an opposition party until leader David Ford took up the reigns of Ministerial Office at the newly devolved Ministry of Justice last year.

A new way - Fracture or Progress?
But what Tom Elliott is today calling for is a transition in the working of government so that when the next Parliamentary term (which begins after elections in the spring) ends in 2015, it will be replaced by one that sits in the traditional way - with a government being faced by a scrutinising opposition.

Can it work? The fact that we now have a government led by the deadliest of foes, the DUP and Sinn Fein, shows testament to how the political process has matured in recent years in Northern Ireland. But then, is the current mandatory form of government the best way of keeping them all together, pointing in the same direction? Will a government/opposition system only help to remind the differing parties and particularly the nationalist and unionist camps, of their differences?

The Future?
At present, the 108 seat Stormont Assembly is composed as follows...

DUP - 36 Members
SF - 27
UU - 16
SDLP - 16
Alliance - 7
Green - 1
Independent - 5

For arguments sake, presuming that the 2015 result (let alone the 2011 result this coming May) is the same, a government would need 55 seats to form an outright majority.

Presuming the DUP are still the largest party in 2015, it would be expected that they would prefer to work with their Ulster Unionist colleagues than to consent to do so with the nationalist parties. On the current numbers, this would leave them 3 short of forming an outright majority government. Would they them cobble together a few independent to work alongside them to give them a weak majority government or would they form an even more fragile minority government?



The Stormont Assembly Chamber



On present numbers, there's no realistic chance that the nationalists could form a majority government and that may be playing on Tom Elliott's mind today as he announces his vision for Northern Ireland.

But what if demographic changes continue and as many commentators suggest, could conceivably lead in the future to a nationalist majority in Northern Ireland? What then? The scenario mentioned above but flipped on its head and a nationalist majority with a unionist minority in opposition?

Walk First, Run Later

I think the idea, whilst a reasonable one, is not for this time. There's no doubt that the test of the Northern Irish political structure is whether in the future it can adapt to a government/opposition system without breaking back out into the old battles of the past. Indeed, it would be proven to have matured completely if a unionist/nationalist majority government could be formed through choice and not through mandation.

But I don't think we're there yet.

We must remember that one of the most contentious areas of policy, that of policing and justice were only finally devolved to Stormont on April 12th 2010 - less than 12 months ago. At that time, because the nationalist and unionist blocks were unwilling for the other to occupy this most sensitive of governmental posts, they voted instead to give the role to the non-sectarian Alliance Party. This was only last year so it's clear that there's still a trust-gap evident in Northern Irish politics.

Until this has disappated, the mandatory form of government in my view is the best and safest way forward for Northern Ireland. Forcing the parties to work together in government will hopefully continue to break down the enmities of old.

They've made great strides forward in recent years but it's too big a gamble to risk by moving ahead in this fashion so soon.

Wikileaks - A Right to Know?

Open government. The right to know.

It sounds like an episode of 'Yes Minister' but the revelations made by wikileaks in recent days is much more significant than could ever have been imagined by a Jim Hacker or a Sir Humphrey.

These diplomatic and security revelations that are being made known by this whistle-blowing website are unprecedented and if their word it to be believed, are only the tip of the iceberg.

Here in the UK, top security documents are usually embargoed under the '30 year' rule if not longer. But now, cables from across the world have been leaked to wikileaks and are opening up the murky world of international diplomacy. Suddenly, we now know the intimate opinions of senior world leaders of their counterparts.

They include reports of some Arab leaders - including Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah - urging the US to attack Iran and end its nuclear weapons programme. Other concerns include the security of Pakistani nuclear material that could be used to make an atomic weapon.

In a statement, the White House said: "Such disclosures put at risk our diplomats, intelligence professionals, and people around the world who come to the United States for assistance in promoting democracy and open government."President Obama supports responsible, accountable, and open government at home and around the world, but this reckless and dangerous action runs counter to that goal."

This is the point. Much diplomatic dialogue that occurs, must be behind closed-doors. Individuals and nations, if in possession of the whole truth of a situation at any given time, may make dangerous decisions.

The Northern Ireland Example
An example from recent years comes from Northern Ireland. We now know, years after the time in question, that John Major in his early years as Prime Minister in the early 1990s, opened up channels of communication with Sinn Fein. This was a highly provocative and high-stakes gamble on his part. Sinn Fein after all were the political arm of the IRA which blew up the Conservative Party conference in Brighton in 1984.

If we knew then what we know now, there's no doubt in my mind that pressures would've been put onto him to stop what were tentative attempts to bring the Republicans to the diplomatic table. Had that have been the case, the 1998 Good Friday Agreement may not have been accomplished all those years later. We may now not have had the peaceful political settlement that has come about since 2007.

A Necessary Evil?
Security and diplomacy and future peace are threatened by these revelations. How can such news as we have read of in recent days help us with our dealings with Iran? They can't. It only adds to the tension that already exists.

We are not talking paperclips and clothes hangers as they may have done in the time of Hacker and Humphrey. We're talking of a post-cold war world where it isn't nations, but people within nations who are the threat to society. Nuclear arms have proliferated and great care must be taken when dealing with the leaders of nations and of peoples who have the access to these earth-changing weapons of destruction.

Diplomacy has a rightful place in modern society - indeed even more so than ever. Security also. It therefore imperils us all when such dimplomatic leaks are made public as we have seen this week. The ends do not justify the means in this case.

Wikileaks may mean well but in this case, they've gone way to far or as Sir Humphrey may have put it, "This is the thin end of the wedge".

Ariel Sharon - Israel's Lost & Forgotten Saviour?

I read in today's Independent of a sculpture of former Israeli PM Ariel Sharon, lying in a coma, which has been unveiled in Israel.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/israel-divided-over-sculpture-of-sharon-in-a-coma-2110301.html

I can't quite believe that it has now almost been 5 years since he had the stroke that brought on this coma in January 2006. Time flies but in the middle east, sadly, some things never change.

For a fierce old right-winger, he had really raised eyebrows during his time as Prime Minister when he withdrew the Israeli military and some 8,000 Israeli settlers from Gaza. He even left his right-wing Likud Party, and boldly set-up his own Kadima Party, whilst at the top.

I recall thinking that maybe, here was a battle-scarred old leader from the Israeli right who, similar to Ian Paisley Snr in Northern Ireland, could see that a new policy of engagement with the enemy was required to benefit his own hand.

Of course, we'll never know what would've happened had Sharon have continued as Prime Minister. Would he have led Israel into the disastrous war that his successor Ehud Olmert did with the Lebanon? How would he have reacted to Hamas in Gaza?

We can't answer these questions, but under Olmert, the peace process failed to move forward. Indeed, accusations of corruption against him did nothing for his authority and Tzipi Livni took over as head of the Kadima Party at the end of 2008. She lost out to Benjamin Netanyahu in the elections in the spring of '09 and so did the hope of taking forward a Sharon-like policy in the middle east.

Benjamin Netanyahu - the new Ian Paisley?
I wondered during that closely fought Israeli election last year whether, against my better inclination, a Netanyahu victory may better focus middle eastern minds. In Northern Ireland, it took the extreme two wings of the debate to come together before a stable peace could be found. The 1998 Good Friday Agreement, brokered by the more moderate UUP and SDLP, stalled entirely within 5 years. But now, the 2007 accord agreed by bitterest rivals the DUP and Sinn Fein has ironically set Northern Ireland onto a true path for peace.

Could the Likud Party, back in goverment under a 2nd Netanyahu administration, provide a similar miracle with Fatah, and even Hamas?

Well, after 18 months, no it hasn't. Could it still? I very much doubt it.

Just days away from the 15th anniversary of Yitzhak Rabin's assassination in November 1995, middle east peace looks no closer to coming to fruition than it has since those heady days of the Oslo Accords of 1993.

Would we be any closer now to a lasting peace had Sharon not had his stroke whilst at the height of his powers? Well, we wouldn't have been any further away from it, that's for sure.

Northern Ireland Pipe Bomb Disgrace

One of my passions, is Northern Ireland.

As a political historian, I've always had a particular interest in the history of this troubled province - particularly since partition in 1921/1922.

I've always followed with great interest, the slow, step-by-step developments of the peace progress during the 1990s. Indeed, when I decided on a long weekend break after the 2007 Welsh Assembly elections, there was only one place I was going. On May 8th 2007, I was going to be in Belfast for the event that no-one could ever have thought possible - the coming together of Ian Paisley's DUP and Martin McGuinness's Sinn Fein. Having got there I took in the sites of the Shankill Road and Falls Road in Belfast and also the 'Bogside' in Londonderry where the 1972 Bloody Sunday massacre occurred. I then managed to get myself into the grounds of Stormont on 'Devolution Day' itself and into the big media tent alongside reporters such as BBC's Dennis Murray and James Lansdale where I wrote my report of this momentous, historic event for the Tivy Side and Carmarthen Journal. There we were witnessing the unbelievable sight of Bertie Ahern and Tony Blair (and sidekick Peter Hain) supporting these two age old enemies come together in the name of peace.

So you can say I've got a vested, emotional interest in the peace process.

I was particularly delighted when Alliance Leader David Ford became the Minister of Justice after policing powers were finally devolved back to Stormont earlier this year. Slowly but surely, the peace process has come together and brought Northern Ireland to a place where it can look forward, and not just look back.

But troubles persist and extremist dissidents remain and look to cause harm to the settled peace.

But surely, even those who disagree with recent developments can not seriously believe that the events that unfolded this morning in an Antrim playground is acceptable?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-11206821

The unbelievable sight of an 8 year old pupil picking up what turned out to be a pipe bomb from his school yard and taking it into his class today calls into question the very thinking of whomever it was who placed it there in the first place.

Poor Brendan Shannon could not have known what it was that he'd innocently found. I mean, peace process or no peace process, who in their right mind would want to place such a device in a primary school yard? It is a despicable, abhorent act.

I know that the hatred runs deep and the bridges that have been built at a political level can not be built overnight at a community level, but today's news just shows that there are those out there who will still consider the most extreme options to further their tired and unpopular views.

In the article that I wrote after my 'Pilgrimage for Peace', I mentioned a mural in the Bog Side that I saw which read, "The Bogside is your womb, and education is your umbilical chord". No more apt a quote could be found. It is education that will finally break down the divide in Northern Irish society and hopefully, young Brendan and his friends and all the other young children in Northern Ireland will look at what happened today and realise that this is not the way forward.

The way forward, through education, is tolerance and peace, not hatred and war. If Paisley and McGuinness could grasp this fact, then surely everyone can.